The Australian Federal Election Explained

Australians Head to the Polls Early

Last Saturday, Australians voted to elect the 48th Parliament following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to call an early federal election. In a result that defied most expectations, the Labor Party achieved a decisive victory—expanding its parliamentary majority and securing 91 seats, a significant jump from the 76 held previously.

In stark contrast, the Coalition suffered major losses, shedding up to 12 seats. This result sharply diverged from most opinion polls and betting market forecasts, which had anticipated a tight race—if not a potential upset.

Polls and Predictions: What Went Wrong?

In the days leading up to the election, most opinion polls indicated a narrow Labor lead of just 2 to 5 percentage points. Analysts suggested a possible Labor minority government or a Coalition resurgence, particularly in marginal seats.

Commentators pointed to several vulnerabilities for the government, including its handling of cost-of-living pressures, the housing crisis, and the failed Voice to Parliament referendum. Despite this, Labor’s messaging proved far more effective than anticipated.

Labor’s First-Term Swing: A Post-War Rarity

Election night told a dramatically different story. Labor achieved something no Australian first-term government has done since World War II: it recorded a national swing toward it.

Suburban electorates and traditional Labor strongholds saw significant increases in support, while the Coalition struggled to regain any meaningful ground. Seats previously lost in 2019 and 2022 were reclaimed by Labor, reinforcing and expanding the government’s majority.

Coalition Collapse: Messaging and Momentum Falter

The Coalition’s dramatic underperformance became the election’s defining feature. Their campaign was criticised for its lack of clarity, frequent policy backflips, and poor timing—particularly the late release of economic costings, just two days before polling.

Leadership instability also played a role. Following the defeat, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton resigned, marking yet another shift in the Coalition’s leadership ranks. The party also failed to connect with Millennial and Gen Z voters, who grew in electoral strength in 2025. Many young Australians found the Coalition out-of-touch on key issues such as housing, climate change, and higher education.

Labor, by contrast, strategically appealed to younger voters, particularly with its 20% reduction in HECS debt—one of the most widely discussed policies during the campaign.

The “Trump Factor”: Voter Rejection of Division

Analysts have dubbed a key dynamic in this election “the Trump Factor.” Coalition rhetoric was widely perceived as increasingly aggressive, divisive, and at times reminiscent of Trump-style populism.

In contrast, Anthony Albanese’s calm and pragmatic leadership style appealed to a public weary of political instability. His government’s focus on wage growth, healthcare, and cost-of-living reforms reinforced a sense of stability and competence that voters embraced.

How Preferential Voting Boosted Labor

Australia’s preferential voting system played a pivotal role in Labor’s landslide. In many electorates, the Coalition initially led on first preferences but failed to attract sufficient preference flows.

Labor benefitted significantly from preferences distributed by Greens, Climate 200-backed independents, and other progressive candidates. This failure by the Coalition to forge stronger preference arrangements reflected deeper strategic and ideological missteps.

Greens Out and a Shrinking Crossbench

Beyond the two major parties, one of the most striking outcomes was the sharp reduction in the size of the crossbench—especially the ousting of the Greens from the lower house.

While Greens and teal independents were expected to retain several seats, Labor’s targeted campaigning and a voter preference for majority governance led to many traditionally Green-leaning electorates swinging toward Labor.

This shift signals a broader public desire for stability and cohesion over fractured or minority representation, allowing Labor to consolidate power and reduce parliamentary gridlock.

What Comes Next?

The 2025 federal election marks a historic turning point. Labor has not only secured a commanding majority but also a powerful mandate to govern. With that comes immense responsibility. Voters expect swift action on key policy areas, including cost-of-living relief, health care investment, education reform, and climate change.

Meanwhile, the Coalition must reassess its direction, leadership, and appeal—especially to younger Australians. Rebuilding public trust will require more than rhetoric; it will demand consistent, clear policy-making and a reimagined platform that speaks to a changing electorate.

As for the Greens and crossbench, the results suggest that Australians may be moving away from fragmented representation and toward majority-led, stable governance.

Stay with Thought Digest for further analysis on what this means for Australia’s political future.